From Hydrocarbons to Hydrogen

There is a certain historical symmetry in the idea that the Gulf, the region that fuelled the twentieth century with oil and gas, could fuel the twenty-first with hydrogen. It is a symmetry the region's leaders have noticed. Across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, green hydrogen has moved from conference talking point to national strategy, with major projects announced, partnerships signed, and infrastructure planned.

Through my work in the energy sector and my advisory roles spanning the UK, UAE, and Pakistan, I have watched this shift accelerate. The question I am asked most often is a simple one: is green hydrogen genuinely the Gulf's next great export, or is it an expensive experiment? My honest answer is that the fundamentals favour the Gulf more strongly than almost anywhere on earth, but the road from potential to profit is long, and it runs through hard engineering and harder economics.

Why the Gulf Holds Winning Cards

Green hydrogen is produced by splitting water using renewable electricity, which means its economics are dominated by one factor above all: the cost of clean power. Here the Gulf's advantage is overwhelming. The region enjoys some of the highest solar irradiance on the planet, vast tracts of available land, and a track record of delivering utility-scale solar at world-record low costs. Cheap, abundant sunshine is the foundation of cheap, abundant hydrogen.

But the advantages run deeper than sunlight. The Gulf possesses something aspiring hydrogen producers elsewhere lack: generations of expertise in producing, processing, and shipping energy molecules at global scale. Ports, pipelines, industrial zones, engineering talent, trading relationships, and the institutional muscle memory of serving energy customers on every continent, all of this transfers naturally to a hydrogen economy. Add sovereign wealth capable of funding first-of-a-kind projects through their difficult early years, and you have a region structurally built for this race.

The Honest Challenges

Enthusiasm should not blur into naivety, and in my advisory work I always insist on seeing the obstacles clearly. Green hydrogen today remains more expensive than the fuels it seeks to replace, and closing that gap requires sustained cost reductions in electrolysers, renewables, and logistics. Transporting hydrogen is genuinely difficult, it must be compressed, liquefied at extreme temperatures, or converted into carriers such as ammonia, each route adding cost and complexity.

Demand is the other side of the equation. The buyers of green hydrogen, steelmakers, shipping lines, fertiliser producers, power utilities in Europe and East Asia, are still early in their own transitions, and long-term purchase commitments remain scarcer than production announcements. The Gulf's hydrogen ambitions will ultimately be paced not by how much the region can produce, but by how quickly the world commits to buying. This is why the most important hydrogen deals are as much diplomatic as commercial, built through exactly the kind of international partnership-building that has defined my own career.

What Success Would Look Like

If the pieces come together, the prize is substantial. Green hydrogen and its derivatives could give the Gulf a durable role in the decarbonised global economy, new export industries, new industrial value chains at home, and continued relevance in the energy security of Europe and Asia. For the UAE in particular, hydrogen fits a broader national story: a country that has consistently invested ahead of the curve, from aviation and logistics to renewables and advanced technology.

There are opportunities here for British business too. UK engineering firms, project developers, financiers, and research institutions all have expertise the Gulf's hydrogen build-out will need. Strengthening these corridors of trade and knowledge is work I care about deeply, and it features prominently in the commentary and news I share on this site.

My Verdict

So, the Gulf's next export? I believe green hydrogen will earn that title, though on a longer timeline than the most excited headlines suggest. The region has the resources, the capital, the infrastructure logic, and above all the strategic will. What remains is a decade of disciplined execution and patient partnership with the demand centres of the world.

Watch, too, for the derivative markets forming around hydrogen itself, green ammonia for shipping and fertiliser, synthetic fuels for aviation, and direct reduction of iron for cleaner steel. Each represents a distinct export opportunity with its own buyers and logistics, and the Gulf is positioning across all of them simultaneously.

The energy transition will reward those who prepare early and engage seriously. You can read more about my work across energy and international advisory, and if your organisation is navigating these shifts, I welcome the conversation, reach me via the contact page.